The prediction seems to less optimistic. «Until 2035, there is almost no poor
countries in the world», forward Bill Gates on the occasion of the publication,
on 21 January, the annual letter of his charitable foundation. Among the 36
poorest countries in the world * - those whose per capita GDP is less than $
1,035/year - almost all will become "" what today is called lower middle-income
countries, if not better ", understands the co-founder of Microsoft." Bill
Gates
This breath of enthusiasm, Bill Gates explained by the fact that the poorest
nations will, according to him, continue their development in relying on
economic models of the most productive neighbors. New vaccines, better quality
seeds, digital revolution or even labor supported by a better education... So
many levers that will help people to escape poverty and attract new investments.
"My birth [in 1955, Editor's note], most countries of the world were poor."
During the next twenty years, desperately poor countries will become the
exception rather than the rule. Billions of people will have eradicated poverty.
"For me, the idea that I will live to attend this is all simply amazing", he
says.
Billionaire (again first American fortune in 2013), provides, however, that
"few countries" will remain "trolling". Subject: "war, politics (such as the
North Korea, unless radical change) or their geographical conditions (such as
landlocked in Central Africa)." Representing 70% of the 36 poorest countries *,
Africa is far from being drawn from case but Bill Gates believes that all
countries in Asia, Central America (except Haiti, possibly) and South of today
middle-income countries have joined. "Almost 90% of countries have higher
incomes than those in the India of today. This will be a remarkable
achievement", he adds.
Projections already views since the 1940s
Contacted by FRANCE 24, Javier Herrera, researcher-Economist at the Institut
de recherche pour le développement (IRD), shows a little more pessimistic on the
issue. "This is not the first time announce such predictions. At the end of the
1940s, already, American experts projected the end of poverty through the advent
of new technologies. More recently, ten years ago, a renowned economist, Jeffrey
Sachs, held a similar speech in a book entitled 'The end of poverty'. But it
still exists... ", describes it.
The expert from the IRD, the poverty
reduction witnessed by Bill Gates "is explained by the performance of China"
has, in fact, boosting the figures. Another weak point in the speech of American
billionaire: "at no time Bill Gates teams seem wonder about the sustainability
of poverty reduction. They assume that very strong growth in these countries
will continue but, nothing from the environmental point of life, natural
resources of certain countries are doomed to run out. And no one is immune from
a climate shock [tsunami, drought, earthquake, etc.] Editor's note] ", adds
Javier Herrera."
Opposite, for the former CEO of Microsoft, one of the solutions to maintain
and encourage the growth is to change attitudes. "It would be fair to say that
the world has changed so much that the terms 'developing' and 'developed
country' have more raison d'etre", defends. That refutes, for his part, Javier
Herrera, for whom a simple change of vocabulary will not lead to advance the
situation. "One should start with harden the criteria which define the threshold
of poverty in the world, today of $ 1.25 per day." I don't know a single 'rich'
countries that live with that amount,"he said. For the researcher, a system
where the poverty line would be "relative" (that is, it adapts to the incomes of
households, as in France) would be much fairer than the current method that
determines the threshold from an "absolute value" applicable to all poor
countries, without distinction.
"Poor countries are not condemned to remain.
But it will take more to alter the motivation of Bill and Melinda Gates.
Fundamentally convinced that "poor countries are not condemned to remain poor",
they also appeal to the generosity of donors and the States. "For Norway, the
most generous country in the world, the amount [of aid, Editor's note] is less
than 3%. It is less than 1% in the case of the United States", calculates to
encourage the leaders to invest more because"it remains more than a billion
people living in conditions of extreme poverty."
Themselves have decided, for some time already, pay 95% of their personal
wealth to charity and intend to lead by example. "We all have the opportunity to
create a world where poverty is the exception rather than the rule, where the
children all have the same chance to thrive, wherever they were born. "For those
of us who believe in the value of every human life, no work in progress is more
inspiring in the world today ' hui", they conclude in the letter of their
Foundation.
Source: F24
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